A New Start

Bitcoin wicks above the May 12 2022 low

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Paradigm funds auditing DAO Code4rena with $6 million token purchase (The Block)

• Polygon spins off project Avail and co-founder departs (The Block)

• SEC Chairman Gensler Suggests Again That Proof-of-Stake Tokens Are Securities: Report (CoinDesk)

• Shiba Inu Token Falls 10% Amid Shibarium Code Drama (CoinDesk)

• Bitcoin derivatives suggest $26K resistance level won’t hold for long (CoinTelegraph)

• Bitcoin to $100K next? Analyst eyes ‘textbook perfect’ BTC price move (CoinTelegraph)

• BlackRock CEO Touts Tokenization, Warns US ‘Lagging’ in Innovation (Blockworks)

• Fed Says Real-time Payments Service To Launch in July(Blockworks)

• Tether's Stablecoin Market Cap Now Double USDC After SVB Chaos(Decrypt)

• Ethereum Layer-2 Solution Arbitrum Announces Token Airdrop, Opens Tech Stack to Devs (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

If anyone is a fan of Arrested Development the title of today’s newsletter was intended for you. If you’ve been with us for a while I hope you know already what I am about to say. The May 12 low has been broken! And yes, it was a wick… And yes, the market is now thinking “Was that wick a local top?” or “Was that wick a new start?”.

Look - this is purely conjecture, but I think it’s a new start personally.

Bitcoin has this way of filling wicks. Of course, not always and anything could happen, but look at the May 12 low. What happened? Big move down that turned into a wick, followed by a multi-month bear market.

So, this is why when I see a wick above the May 12 low, the level we’ve been paying close attention to for months, in my mind, this is evidence on the trail.

Okay - say this is consolidation and BTC is about to move higher than the key level to watch is the 50 day Moving average. If you read Tuesday’s newsletter I talked about how the 50 day MA and the FTX local low did not act as support on the recent down move. That being said, if the 50 day MA now acts as support on a down move that would be quite bullish.

On the bear side, if the 50 day MA is lost then expect the 200 day to be retested once more and everything I said gets put on pause for a while.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $25k.

Possible Course of Action

• HODL time, long spot and forget about it

• Do nothing and wait for BTC to rise above $25k and hold it as support before getting long

• Short if 50 day MA is broken expecting a move to the 200 day MA

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Trading above FTX local high

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• $25k double top

• Below 50 day MA

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal gives and update on the two altcoins discussed on Tuesday.