Airdrops and Rate Hikes

The market digests the recent rate hike and fed statements while eagerly awaiting the arbitrum airdrop

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Circle sidesteps SWIFT after bank collapses, turns to Gibraltar's Xapo Bank (The Block)

• SEC investigating Coinbase for its Earn product, wallet service and exchange activity (The Block)

• Floor Prices for Donald Trump NFTs Surge on News of Possible Indictment (CoinDesk)

• Arbitrum Daily Transaction Count Hits Record High Ahead of Token Airdrop(CoinDesk)

• ‘How did this happen’ — Powell says Fed stumped over the collapse of SVB(CoinTelegraph)

• FTX seeks to claw back $460M from Bankman-Fried-backed VC firm(CoinTelegraph)

• Bitcoin Outshining Ether as Shanghai Looms (Blockworks)

• Deribit Bitcoin Options Open Interest Hits All-time High (Blockworks)

• Telegram Announces USDT Stablecoin Payments on Tron Network (Decrypt)

• Tron Token Sees Selloff After SEC Files Charges Against Founder Justin Sun (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

If you missed the news yesterday, the Fed announced they would be hiking rates another 0.25 basis point, then Jerome Powell said financial conditions were tightening and the fed would do whatever needed to bring inflation back to 2% over time.

Not surprisingly, Bitcoin rallied into the news and then sold off whipsawing both shorts and longs. Crypto twitter has been raving about $1million Bitcoin within the next 90 days and yesterday’s sell put a silence across the bulls and brought back the bears calling for $12k. That’s a wide trading range!

But we don’t trade the news here. Other than the wild intraday volatility yesterday, nothing has changed from a technical perspective on the BTC outlook. One thing to pay attention to is yesterday’s outside daily candle. This could be the first daily candle in the start of an outside reversal. The direction of today’s candle is likely to set the direction for the coming days/weeks. A red candle would likely be followed by a retest of the May 12 low around $25k. This could be a good place to catch a bounce or close a short if you managed to get short before yesterday’s Fed speech.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $25k.

Possible Course of Action

• HODL if long spot

• Do nothing and wait for BTC to retest $25k and hold as support before buying

• Short rallies expecting a retest of $25k

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Trading above FTX local high

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Fed increased interest rates 0.25

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

So you [got/missed] the ARB airdrop? What next?