An Old Familiar Place

Bitcoin retests a key support level, what next?

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Hedera blockchain undergoing technical irregularities, HBAR Foundation says (The Block)

• Gate.io launching Visa crypto debit card in Europe (The Block)

• U.S. Government's $1B Bitcoin Transfer Spooks Investors, Bitcoin Dips (CoinDesk)

• FTX Reaches $45M Deal to Sell Interest in Sequoia to Abu Dhabi's Investment Arm (CoinDesk)

• Judge refuses to consolidate class-action lawsuits against FTX (CoinTelegraph)

• MakerDAO Eyes More US Treasury and Bond Investments (Blockworks)

• Germany: Digital Collectible NFTs Not Securities (Blockworks)

• Planet Hollywood Inks Deal With Animoca Brands to Launch NFT Club in L.A. (Decrypt)

• Fed Chair Ponders Potential for Digital Dollar to Send Bitcoin to Zero (Decrypt)

• Paxos peddles gold bullion token to banks in wake of stablecoin slapdown (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

Hindsight is 20/20 and our roadmap has lead us exactly here just above the FTX local top. Silvergate bank officially going under has sent waves of selling across crypto. BTC has actually held up well relative to altcoins, many of which are down 30%+ from their recent highs.

This morning BTC’s price came within a few dollars of the FTX local time. Ideally, from a technical perspective, one would like to see the top tested more thoroughly or have a stronger reaction back to the upside. In the coming days this level could be tested multiple times and even break ($21500). If the bulls are still around there could be a sharp move back up to the 50 day moving average around $23000.

BTC is likely to continue to ranging near the current price as the market anticipates february inflation data that becomes public next week. If inflation comes in hotter than expected there could be more selling and BTC could move all the way to the 200 day MA around $19500. Higher than expected inflation would suggest to the market that the fed could raise rates even faster than expected with a possible 50 bips hike.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $25k.

Possible Course of Action

• Do nothing and wait for BTC to hold FTX local high as support ($21.5k)

• Do nothing and wait for BTC to rise above 50 day MA ($23k) and hold as support

• Short if FTX local high fails as support ($21.5k) expected a retest of 200 day MA ($19.5k)

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Trading above FTX local high

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• $25k double top

• Below 50 day MA

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal looks at ETH’s performance relative to BTC and stocks.