Ape vs Analyst

Bitcoin rallies nearly 13% in 8 hours yesterday

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Blur CEO urges creators to 'block OpenSea' (The Block)

• Sending Labs secures $12.5 million to build 'web3 communication stack' (The Block)

• Short Trades Make up 90% of $200M in Losses as Bitcoin, Ether Surge (CoinDesk)

• DOGE, Floki Soaring After Musk Tweets Photo of His Dog in Twitter CEO Chair (CoinDesk)

• Tether market cap nears $70B as SEC crypto crackdown hurts stablecoin rivals (CoinTelegraph)

• BIS-funded regulator to probe DeFi entry points like stablecoins (CoinTelegraph)

• Binance ‘Likely’ to Pay Fines in US Over Regulatory Probes: WSJ(Blockworks)

• FTX Investigations are Plenty, No Need for Independent Examiner, Judge Rules (Blockworks)

• Mango Markets Attacker Urges Court to Let Him Keep Hacked Funds (Decrypt)

• GQ Joins List of Legacy Media Outlets Boarding NFT Bandwagon (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

This week was a big win for the Apes and a fat lose for the Analysts. The week opened up with tension in the markets around what to expect from the CPI numbers. The numbers came out with more inflation than expected which seemed to drive crypto markets lower in 2022. However, BTC buyers (apes) came flooding in on Tuesday afternoon and the buying continued through Wednesday with BTC going up nearly 13% over an 8 hour period.

We suggested in Tuesday’s newsletter that buying if BTC rises above $22k could be a good move. Remember cryptos are reflexive so buy high sell higher works often for BTC.

But, you really had to throw everything out the window to buy after the CPI numbers on Tuesday and this rally could still just be the death throws of bottom shorts. If you ignore the fed, cpi, earnings, jobs etc, BTC’s technical structure looks quite good.

• The price has not retested the 50 day MA since Jan 6th

• The price found support at the FTX local top after a large correction into it

• Buyers shook off inflation numbers and pushed the price to the next resistance in 2 days

• The golden cross happend (50 day MA above 200 day) and 50 day is rising with the price now

I would be surprised if BTC didn’t find resistance near $25k and begin another consolidation phase. In fact $20k - $25k could turn into a trading range for some time. If BTC is able to rise above the May 12 low around $25.3k and hold it as support then a move higher to $28-30k would likely follow.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $25k.

Possible Course of Action

• Take profit here or near $25k if you were able to catch this weeks move up

• Short near $25k expecting it to act as resistance

• Do nothing wait for $25k to act as support before entering into a long

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Golden Cross

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• $25k (May 12 low) should act as resistance

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal looks at Bitcoins out performance and rising dominance.