Can He Break Even?

Bitcoin flirts with Saylor's breakeven price

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• MoonPay has dismissed dozens of staff, while denying those cuts are layoffs (The Block)

• Bored Ape metaverse land sales dominance threatened by (what appears to be) wash trading (The Block)

• Bitcoin Volatility Likely as Options Worth $4B Expire on Friday (CoinDesk)

• XRP Trading Volumes Surges to Billions of Dollars on South Korean Crypto Exchanges (CoinDesk)

• Thai SEC wants to lift restrictions on initial coin offerings(CoinTelegraph)

• Crypto donations to surpass $10B in a decade: The Giving Block(CoinTelegraph)

• Warner Music Web3 Moves Could Still Be in Play Despite Layoffs (Blockworks)

• FDIC Chair Grilled Over Crypto-friendly Bank Takeovers (Blockworks)

• Matt Damon Says He Did Crypto.Com Ad Due to 'Down Year' at Clean Water Foundation (Decrypt)

• Citi Says Mass Adoption of Crypto Will Be Driven by CBDCs, Tokenization (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

As of today we are going to start watching $29.8k as a key resistance level. This is the price level in which Microstrategy’s Bitcoin purchases (lead by Michael Saylor) break even. The greatest irony would be the price touching this level than going all the way down to liquidated their position. However, liquidation of the position is highly unlikely and their Silvergate loan which had a liquidation level around $3500 BTC has been paid back in full.

Actually, earlier this week Saylor announced another BTC purchase by Microstrategy and the price tanked. If BTC’s goal is to become a widely used currency or even a store of value, one actor accumulating a large percentage of the supply while adoption is still early is not healthy for the market. I think a bullish headline would be the day Microstrategy sells some of their BTC over the counter to some new party (maybe another companies treasury or new technology company). This would demonstrate there is demand in the market from some other party to own the coins and not just some wild bet by Saylor that’s possibly becoming over sized and over leveraged.

Looking at the chart. Nothing has changed since our Tuesday’s article. We pointed out how Monday’s low would be the key support to watch this week and it has held so far. Going into the end of the week we are now watching last weeks high and $29.8k as possible resistance points for further consolidation or even a turn around.

Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC meets resistance near $29.8k.

Possible Course of Action

• HODL if long spot

• Do nothing and wait for BTC to retest $25k and hold as support before buying

• Short near $30k expecting a retest of $25k

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Reclaimed last weeks point of control

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Fed increased interest rates 25 bps

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This week Hal looks at the NASDAQ and ETH’s relative performance to tech stocks.