Cooling Off
Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the 2023 local high
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Cathie Wood’s ARK reportedly ‘first in line’ for a spot Bitcoin ETF (CoinDesk)
100 tokenized Teslas ‘democratize’ and ‘decentralize’ Web3 ride sharing (CoinDesk)
Circle sets sights on Hong Kong, sees 'enormous demand for digital dollars' (The Block)
Riot purchases 33,000 bitcoin miners for $163 million (The Block)
3AC-Linked FLEX, OX Tokens Surge Despite Lack of New Holders (CoinTelegraph)
Chibi Finance Rug Pulls Users for $1M, CHIBI Falls 98% (CoinTelegraph)
Crypto’s problems were ‘avoidable,’ Metallicus founder says (Blockworks)
Leveraged bitcoin futures ETF launch set for Tuesday (Blockworks)
Circle CEO Optimistic Over Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval: 'Progress is Being Made' (Decrypt)
EU Reaches Agreement on Crypto Asset Regulations in Banking (Decrypt)
The history of crypto exchanges trading against their own customers (Protos)
Yield-hunting investors send staked Ether beyond $43bn to eclipse exchanges (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Bitcoin quickly reclaimed all the selling from April until June in just a few days after the news that a spot ETF application was filed by BlackRock. The news was significant because BlackRock has a near perfect track record in getting approvals for ETF filings. The price has moved quickly back to a key technical range, and is currently trading between MicroStrategy’s average entry price and the April 2023 high. The Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes at the last meeting may also be a factor playing into this rally. Simply because it may have allowed participants to ignore interest rates and inflation and search for new narratives.
A key technical factor is that Bitcoin is now trading well above its 50 day moving average. You may notice that the 50 day MA (in blue) has been steadily moving toward the 200 day MA (in gold). If Bitcoin is going to stay in a continued bull run through the remained of 2023 it would be expected that the 50 day MA will remain above the 200 day MA for the remainder of the year. This means the obvious technical factors to watch in H2 are if the Bitcoin price can remain above these two moving averages and if the 50 day MA can stay above the 200 day MA. Any of these crossing to the downside could be a sign that this rally has lost steam and could be over. However, until any of these technical events happen it’s likely the rally will continue without outside bearish news.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
Stay long while price remains above 50 day MA
Short rally’s expecting a retest of the 50 day MA
Do nothing and wait for a retest of the 50 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above the 50 & 200 day MA
Price holding MicroStrategy’s entry as support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Potential US recession
Future Fed rate hikes could turn around the rally
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal reviews where UNI could be heading next after the strong performance in the past week.
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