The ETF Decision Is Near
The Bitcoin ETF is expected to approved this week
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
Are you new to Foot Guns? Learn how to read the cheat sheet here.
What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
BlackRock, VanEck hand in amended S-1 forms for spot bitcoin ETFs to address final comments (The Block)
Valkyrie expects spot bitcoin ETFs to go effective Wednesday with trading beginning Thursday (The Block)
Standard Chartered tips $200K Bitcoin by late 2025 if ETFs approved (CoinTelegraph)
This Bitcoin ’bull cross’ is about to hit for the first time since 2016 (CoinTelegraph)
'Grayscale Discount' Sinks to Lowest in 18 Months on Bets for GBTC Conversion to Bitcoin ETF (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Decouples From Nasdaq Amid ETF Speculation (CoinDesk)
DCG said it fully paid off its Genesis loans, but its creditors beg to differ (Blockworks)
SEC’s Gensler takes to Crypto Twitter as ETF deadline looms (Blockworks)
Gary Gensler Again Warns Against Investing in Crypto as Market Awaits Bitcoin ETF (Decrypt)
BitMEX’s bitcoin moon mission could be lost in space after fuel leak (Protos)
European Central Bank lays out €1.2bn plan for development of digital euro (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Bitcoin’s price continues to have strong upward momentum in the first days of the new year. Finally retesting the 50 day moving average on January 2nd after 83 days of trading above the 50 day MA. This is likely driven by bullish sentiment around the BTC ETF which is expected to be approved and live for trading this week. The strength of this rally could be coupled with the fact that Bitcoin’s mining reward will be cut in half sometime this summer. Three distinct bullish cycles in Bitcoin’s history have been strongly correlated with the halving event.
The widely held sentiment in the crypto community is that the news of the ETF’s approval will be a selling event but that over the longer timeframes it will be a bullish moment for BTC. It’s commonly agreed that whether the prices moves up or down on the news that the volatility is expected to rise.
As usual we look to the 200day and 50 day moving averages as points of reference to judge the strength of this rally and possible places the price could consolidate after a pull back. These are currently at $32700 and $41900 respectively. When an asset breaks out above old resistance levels like Bitcoin is currently doing it can be harder to find where the next resistance will be in a traditional manner considering how little time Bitcoin has actually traded above $45k. This is why we use the cheat sheets resistances based on momentum that currently shows the weekly resistance is around $53k. With these pieces of information it’s a good idea to consider $40k-$50k as a possible new trading range.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action as well as other markets including equities, altcoins, and commodities.
Possible Course of Action
Stay Long here while price remains above yearly open
Short if price falls below 50 day MA
DCA into spot long over Q1 in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision likely to happen this week
Bitcoin Miner reward halving 2024 summer
The Bears’ Prosecution:
ETF is priced in (sell the news)
Want more from Foot Guns? Join our Discord where we have live conversations about the market.