A Head Start
Crypto starts the year with a small rally
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Gemini CEO Winklevoss escalates DCG spat, demands removal of Silbert (The Block)
Coinbase to cut 20% of staff in latest round of layoffs (The Block)
SEC also investigating Mango exploiter Eisenberg: CFTC Commissioner (The Block)
Crypto Exchange Operator Bithumb Investigated by South Korean Tax Authorities (CoinDesk)
UK ‘Fully Behind’ Stablecoin for Wholesale Settlements, Treasury Official Says (CoinDesk)
Nigeria to create the stablecoins and ICOs legal framework (CoinTelegraph)
Mark Cuban To Be Deposed Next Month in Voyager ‘Ponzi’ Suit (Blockworks)
Younger Lawmakers Asked to Craft Privacy-Preserving Crypto Legislation (Blockworks)
Apple’s Mixed-Reality Headset to Launch This Spring (Decrypt)
Trump NFT Mania Gets a Very Short Term as Sales Nearly Vanish (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
We’ve said it several times in the podcast, “Just be right about direction”. Everything is a bear flag when prices are going down and a bull flag when prices are going up. The last year was a series of starts and stops for Bitcoin each of which resulted in another leg down.
Technically, how do bear flags stop? When the price goes up.
Notice how from July to November every attempt for the price to move up was soon met with a move back to this slowly rising diagonal line.
Well the current situation since November is not too dissimilar. The only difference being the magnitude of the moves. However, Bitcoin is still bouncing off a slightly rising diagonal and this is technically a bear flag.
Simply put, until Bitcoin moves above the diagonal formed in summer 2022 or below the diagonal it’s currently forming, the price is in no man’s land. You could just as easily see a move to $22k as continued consolidation around these price levels.
With fed minutes releasing at the same time as this newsletter today and CPI on Thursday it might be best to just sit on your hands and wait for direction to become more obvious.
Possible Course of Action
Do nothing wait for fed minutes and CPI data
Long if price reclaims $20k+
Short if price falls below current rising diagonal around $16.5k
The Bulls’ Defense:
2023 January rally in tack
Daily RSI > 50
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Global uncertainty , recession fears
Uncertainty around fed minutes
Uncertainty around Thursday CPI
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal analysis the NASDAQ and the ETH/BTC ratio and what this can tell us about the week ahead.
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