Fed Watching
Bitcoin stalls at $43k as markets anticipate tomorrows fed comments
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
New spot bitcoin ETFs amass 150,000 BTC as GBTC market share falls to 36% (The Block)
Binance Labs invests in Ethereum liquid restaking protocol Puffer (The Block)
Bitcoin mining boosts the transition to renewable energy (CoinTelegraph)
Coinbase to charge conversion fees above $75M monthly volume (CoinTelegraph)
MIM Stablecoin Suffers Flash Crash Amid $6.5M Exploit (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin ETF Has Broken BTC's Pandemic-Era Price Correlation With Luxury Watches (CoinDesk)
PayPal Ventures uses its stablecoin for investment in crypto transfer platform Mesh (Blockworks)
European securities regulator seeks limits on non-EU crypto firms (Blockworks)
Floki Halts Staking Program in Hong Kong After Regulator Warning (Decrypt)
Chinese takeaway worker laundered bitcoin from $6B scam, prosecutors (Protos)
Ether ETFs, more regulation, and privacy battles — Here’s what’s coming in crypto (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Last week BTC was able to find support around $38k after selling followed the ETF launch. The price has also now temporarily reclaimed the top of the trading range and the next phase will be to observer if it can find support above this $42k level.
Note that the 200 day MA has now crossed above the 900 day MA completing the first golden cross since July 2019. Bitcoin did experience significant drawdowns after this moment in 2019 but the 200 day MA never fell below the 900 day MA until the death cross in August 2022.
Tomorrow, eyes will be on the fed’s comments following their meeting today. This event has historically caused intraday volatility in the BTC price between 1pm and 3pm eastern time. It’s likely the fed will hold rates steady but the market will pay close attention to their forward guidance given in the statement. Rate cuts are expected this year so overly hawkish statements could take some wind out of the market if less cuts than expected are hinted at.
Several large US companies report earnings this evening which could create another impact in the crypto markets but this is unlikely to impact Bitcoin’s price as the correlation to equities has been muted recently. However, if there are large price swings in Bitcoin this evening in response to earnings this could be a hint of the correlation reforming.
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Possible Course of Action
Stay flat waiting for Fed decision and volatility to play out
DCA into spot long over Q1 in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
Long near $42k expected it to act as support
Short if $42k flips to resistance
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price still trading above 200 day MA
Golden Cross
The Bears’ Prosecution:
ETF is priced in (sell the news)
Hawkish fed could dampen rally
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