Solana Goes Blockless
Bitcoin's price consolidates as Solana stops producing blocks
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Solana confirms outage on mainnet, engineers are investigating (The Block)
Daily active users on Farcaster surge to all-time high, driven by Frames launch (The Block)
Monero hits 5-month low as Binance plans delisting (CoinTelegraph)
GBTC drops BTC stake by 21%, Celsius exits bankruptcy, and more: Hodler’s Digest (CoinTelegraph)
Trump-Themed Tokens Rocket as Prominent Crypto Fund Bets on Coins Modeled After Ex-President (CoinDesk)
Ripple Must Share Financial Statements Requested by SEC, Court Rules (CoinDesk)
Sui, Bittensor, Celestia top small pack with rising bitcoin price ratios (Blockworks)
ENS partners with GoDaddy to enable users to link wallets to domains (Blockworks)
South Korea Arrests Haru Invest Executives Over Alleged $826M Embezzlement (Decrypt)
London High Court hears allegations of Craig Wright’s forgeries (Protos)
Why Bitcoin will benefit from the Chinese stock market ‘bloodbath’ (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
At the time of writing this if you go to https://solscan.io/txs you will see it’s been nearly 4 hours since Solana has produced a new block. In comparison you can visit https://bitcoinuptime.org/ and see that Bitcoin has had only two moments in its early history where there was some downtime in the network and since then it’s been 3976 days with zero down time, which is an outlier amongst tech networks. Ethereum had a major outage just two years ago when blocks were not being produced, as well as the famous DAO hack in 2016 that resulted in ETH being forked and ETC (ETH Classic) emerging. This is one of the reasons Bitcoin remains at the top in market cap amongst cryptos. It has proven itself to be consistent, simple and doesn’t break. Though it lacks the capabilities that ETH and SOL possess this unbreakability continues to make it a better long term store of value.
The biggest issue with a network like ETH or SOL not producing blocks is they have decentralized exchanges with liquidity pools with assets that become disconnected in price from centralized exchange markets. On top of that users’ funds are now “stuck” until new blocks are produced so value can again be transferred.
Back to Bitcoin price action and drivers. The fed announced last week that they would hold rates steady and are looking for “confidence” in the data that inflation will return to their 2% target. This means the 6 rate cuts that were priced in for 2024 are likely to be less than 6 as the first meeting has now passed with no cut. Prices in US Equities and crypto sold off into the news but then quickly recovered the next day. Even with this news, the Nasdaq continues to carry more momentum than Bitcoin in the short term likely due to Greyscale outflows having to be absorbed by buyers.
For now the price continues to consolidate near the 50 day moving average while the 200 day MA continues to move higher into our expected trading range. It’s likely the price will continue to drift relatively sideways until a new catalyst emerges.
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Possible Course of Action
DCA into spot long over Q1 in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
Long near $42k expected it to act as support
Short if $42k flips to resistance
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price still trading above 200 day MA, consolidating at 50 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Fed held rates steady so rate cuts have been pushed into the future
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