The Bitcoin Bailout
Bitcoin rallies on news of SVB depositor relief from FDIC
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Ark Invest adds $6.4 million worth of Block shares across three separate funds (The Block)
Sam Altman’s Worldcoin unveils World ID protocol and SDK (The Block)
India’s Crypto Industry Finally Sees Lawmakers Engaging (CoinDesk)
Santander, HSBC, Deutsche and Others Still Willing to Serve Crypto Clients After Banking Failures, DCG Says (CoinDesk)
Stargate foundation advises DAO against reissuing STG tokens (CoinTelegraph)
Euler Finance blocks vulnerable module, working on recovering funds(CoinTelegraph)
Meta ‘Winding Down’ NFT Efforts (Blockworks)
Silicon Valley Bank Contagion: Crypto Companies Affected Include BlockFi, Circle, Avalanche, Ripple (Decrypt)
Binance to Suspend British Pound Deposits, Withdrawals(Decrypt)
DoJ probes $60bn TerraUSD crash, Biden calms banking meltdown fears (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
If you somehow haven’t heard, last Friday Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed and over the weekend a joint statement was released saying the banks depositors would be made whole by FDIC. Related to this bank failure, it was discovered some percentage of USD backing Circle’s USD were in SVB and over the weekend USDC lost it’s peg and is still currently trading $0.9943 just under $1. These two catalysts are likely the reason money flowed into BTC over the weekend resulting in a massive rally and BTC reclaiming the entire last two weeks of selling in just three days.
From a technical perspective what’s most important in the last two weeks of price action is which supports and resistance were respected. BTC flew past the 50 day moving average and the FTX local top both on the way down and on the way up. What’s very clear is the bulls were ready to buy at the 200 day moving average which was nearly the exact local bottom of the recent sell off.
The CPI report will release this morning at 8:30 am eastern (after this commentary) and as usual these days tend to have high intraday volatility. One could speculate that if inflation is less than expected BTC may rally further with the market expecting the Fed would then have more room to pivot.
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Possible Course of Action
Do nothing wait for Bitcoin to rise above $25k and hold it as support before buying
Short near $25k expecting it to act as resistance
Hold a long position as long as price is above 200 day MA
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above the 200 day MA & 50 day MA
Bank mismanagement and government relief is fundamental to Bitcoin bull case
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Double top at $25.3k
Bad CPI report could end the rally
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal looks at two altcoins that could be potential buys.
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