Crab Day
Bitcoin and Oil open sideways
Don’t miss last weeks podcast. Hal, Boomer discuss what’s going on with oil, commodities and how it may impact Crypto.
CHEAT SHEET
We’ve updated the cheat sheet!
In order to understand how the macro picture is developing we are now following CL (front contract of light sweet crude oil), ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures contract), NQ (Nasdaq-100 e-mini futures contract). This should help you understand the broader market conditions you are buying or selling crypto within.
We are no longer showing you the date our Bias change but instead the last 3 bias for each timeframe. For example, for the last three months Bitcoin has been bearish, this week it is bullish and the last 2 weeks were neutral for the weekly. Oil closed last week bearish but flipped bullish on the daily on Sunday and remains bullish.
Altcoins We Are Watching
Crypto News
Fifa adds Crypto.com as football World Cup sponsor (FT)
BlackRock Looks to Offer Crypto Services as Client Demand Rises (CoinDesk)
UK Regulators Says Crypto Adoption Poses Financial Risk, Call for Additional Powers (CoinDesk)
BAYC's ApeCoin up 50% this week as its creator raises $450M in new funding (CoinTelegraph)
Almost half of Germans to invest in crypto: Report (CoinTelegraph)
Stargate Finance attracts $1.9B in six days (CoinTelegraph)
ANZ Becomes First Bank to Mint Australian Digital Dollar (Blockworks)
SoftBank Messaging Giant To Launch NFT Marketplace in Japan (Blockworks)
CoinShares, FTX Team Up To Launch Solana ETP (Blockworks)
El Salvador Delays Volcano Bond Issue, Unveils State-owned Company Backing (Blockworks)
Coinbase Adds Cardano Staking Rewards (Decrypt)
Meta Files Trademarks for Crypto Tokens, Wallets, Exchanges (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
If you are unfamiliar with the EMA ribbon tool, it shows the Exponential Moving Average for many different lengths of time all at once. In red is a range of EMAs starting at 21 days and going to 55, in yellow is the 200 day EMA. The Tradingview tool is programmed to flash a buy signal when the 21 day EMA crosses above the 50 EMA. On the daily timeframe these buy and sell signals are very reliable, but like always nothing is 100%.
You can see in the current daily candle that recent attempts to move up were sold off quickly. It’s possible this is another failed attempt similar to Feb 16th and March 3rd where the EMA’s were about to start crossing and Bitcoin sold off. Notice that in the last 21 – 55 days this is telling us that through all the volatility, on average, BTC has been moving sideways. It’s possible many who bought this rally get out in the coming days if the week does not close strongly above $42k.
Note that historically when BTC hovers above it’s 50day EMA altcoins tend to have a short-term rally.
Possible Course of Action
Long here watching EMA ribbon for confirmation
Short betting on return to 50day EMA
The Bulls’ Defense:
Potential EMA Ribbon buy signal
Trading above 50 day EMA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Weakness in current daily candle could signal a short-term top
ETH Outlook
Today we are back to watching the ETH/BTC pair following the breakout from this multi-month downtrend. News continues to circulate about ETH’s migration to proof-of-stake expected in June. This is supposedly giving a headwind to the price relative to BTC. Looking at the chart it appears ETH is forming a bull flag. These have a tendency to breakout to the upside.
Possible Course of Action
Long here watching BTC and ETH/BTC pair closely
Short feels dangerous here
The Bulls’ Defense:
EIP-1559 has burned $6,082,553,134 (2,011,984 ETH) so far. Supply constraints should continue to have a positive impact on price.
ETH/BTC bull flag
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Downtrend since Dec 7 2021 could be retested
BTC may outperform in the short-term
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