Slump Or Dump?
Bitcoin briefly falls below $65k
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce denounces SAB 121 and criticizes her agency's regulatory approach (The Block)
Wallet containing $2 billion of DOJ-seized bitcoin appears to send test transaction to Coinbase Prime: Arkham data (The Block)
Singapore amends Payment Services Act to cover token custody and transfers (CoinTelegraph)
Second phase of crypto bull market about to start, says on-chain analyst (CoinTelegraph)
Ethena Labs' ENA Token Goes Live, Starts Trading at 64 Cents (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Drops Over 5% as Upbeat U.S. Factory Data Powers Dollar Index to Nearly 5-Month High (CoinDesk)
Fhenix partners with EigenLayer to develop FHE coprocessors (Blockworks)
What is DEGEN chain? The L3 built for the memecoin community DEGEN (Blockworks)
'Crypto: The Game' Goes Bigger for Season 2—Can It Sustain the Hype? (Decrypt)
Tether implicated in Russian weapons sales, completes security audit (Protos)
A hedge fund sees Bitcoin at $90,000 in April. Here are five factors driving gains (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Since our last post Bitcoin has broken above and fallen below the all time high now trading to a similar price as it was a month ago around $65k. The 50 day moving average has finally caught up to the price currently at around $63k. Due to the drastic and sudden price rise the 200 moving average is still far below the price at around $43750. This is near the price BTC was trading at around the time of the ETF launch. Starting in late 2023 BTC has continued to find support at or around the 50 day moving average during this bull rally.
Historically, BTC has had large pull backs during bull runs, before the halvening, and during the summer months (sell in May and go away). There is now strong confluence for a dip going into the halving and the summer. BTC has yet to experience a significant dip on this run up unlike the 2020-21 bull run where 30-50% bull backs were seen. That being said, if BTC can find support above the previous all time high more upside is possible before any significant pull backs are seen.
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Possible Course of Action
Get flat anticipating buying opportunities in late summer
Long near 50 day MA or 200 day MA
If “Short or sell near old ATH expecting it to act as resistance” as we suggested in previous article, stay short until 50 day or 200 day MA is tested
Add to shorts if 50 day MA is lost and becomes new resistance
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price still trading above 50 day and 200 day MA
Consolidation under previous ATH
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Old ATH has acted as short-term resistance
Summer cyclical selling
No strong pull backs so far this run up
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