Volatility Crush
The ETFs are here and the halving happened. What's next?
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
CoinFund and Distributed Global lead $5.5 million seed round for decentralized AI firm Prime Intellect (The Block)
Blockchain Association and Crypto Freedom Alliance of Texas sue the SEC over newly adopted dealer rule (The Block)
Binance sued in Canada for securities law violations (CoinTelegraph)
DAO Maker hack victims still await reimbursement 3 years later (CoinTelegraph)
Ether ETFs Are Unlikely to Be Approved in May: Standard Chartered (CoinDesk)
Ripple Says $10M Penalty Enough, Rejects SEC’s Ask of $1.95B Fine in Final Judgment (CoinDesk)
Families like mine need safe, secure digital identities (Blockworks)
What’s behind Celo’s pivot to Ethereum? (Blockworks)
'Final Fantasy' Maker Square Enix Teams With Animoca for Ethereum NFT Game (Decrypt)
Do Kwon can’t leave Montenegro, but owes the US millions (Protos)
Bitcoin’s record $80m fee frenzy is just the beginning for Runes (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
We haven’t been writing much because Bitcoin’s relative volatility has been decreasing as it consolidates near the previous cycle all time high, trading between $60k and $70k (two big rounds numbers). We discussed the current state of the market in our most recent podcast.
Bitcoin is now trading under the 50 day moving average ($67.5k) and appears to be meeting it as resistance. If Bitcoin is unable to reclaim this level then a move to the 200 day MA ($48k) over the summer could be likely. Note that the 200 day MA is moving up towards the price so it could be well above $50k or even $60k before a retest happens.
The chart is showing a cup and handle pattern on the macro time frame. Meaning a long period of consolidation after the previous high and now a return to that high with near term consolidation near the old high. If the price can reclaim this years high a significant move upward would be expected.
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Possible Course of Action
Get flat anticipating buying opportunities in late summer near 200 day MA
If “Short or sell near old ATH expecting it to act as resistance” as we suggested in previous article, stay short until price closes above 50 day MA
Add to shorts if 50 day MA is lost and becomes new resistance
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price still trading above 200 day MA
Consolidation under previous ATH and now 50 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Old ATH has acted as short-term resistance
50 day MA now acting as resistance
Summer cyclical selling
No strong pull backs so far this run up
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