Slow Fall
The sell off continues in slow motion
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Bitcoin Price May Hit $100K by Year End, Standard Chartered Bank Says (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin's 50-Day Moving Average in Focus for Crypto Analysts After 11% Price Pullback (CoinDesk)
Genesis creditors reject previously agreed bankruptcy restructuring plan, DCG says (The Block)
Elon Musk's blue checks have divided Crypto Twitter into the haves and the have nots (The Block)
5 charged by DOJ over alleged crypto price manipulation scheme (CoinTelegraph)
Stablecoin payments: Visa shares plans for ‘ambitious’ crypto product (CoinTelegraph)
MEV Searchers: The Ruthless Battle for Profit (Blockworks)
Terraform Labs Co-Founder Among 10 Indicted in South Korea (Blockworks)
‘Avengers’ Director Predicts AI-Generated Movies Within Two Years (Decrypt)
Google Adds Web3 Features to Cloud Offerings (Decrypt)
How hackers turn stolen crypto into cash (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
I don’t think many were surprised that MicroStrategy’s entry price at $29800 failed to hold as support and even appears to have set the new resistance level in this mid-term rally. After spending a few days at $30,000 Bitcoin failed to find any near-term support and has been in a consistent yet somewhat relatively slow and steady sell off.
At the time of writing this BTC is hovering around its 50 day moving average. There was even an article linked above from this morning on CoinDesk mentioning the 50 day MA level will be the focus of many analysts and traders this week.
As you can see from the chart, Bitcoin had little care for the 50 day MA in March when it blew through that moving average and did not find support until reaching the 200 day. However, the 200 day acted as very strong support and the price rallied quickly in the following days making new local highs. If a similar situation repeats itself the 200 day moving average is currently 21% below the price. This would be a painful move for buyers of the recent rally to hold through.
Unlike in March, the BTC price is currently holding above the 50 day MA. This will be an important level to watch this week. A daily candle closing under this important level would likely be followed by a price decline of -20% or more down to the 200 day MA as mentioned. Buyers will need to show up this week and continue to keep the price above the 50 day MA if this bear scenario is to be rejected.
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Possible Course of Action
Short if 50 day MA fails to act as support
Get long here (50 day MA currently holding as support, could use tight stop loss)
Do nothing and wait for retest of 200 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above the 200 day MA
Price currently holding 50 day MA as support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$30k (big round number) new resistance
200 day MA -20% below current price
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal looks at the most popular meme coin trading on Twitter.
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