And Another One Falls
JPM buys First Republic Bank; PACW shows signs of trouble
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Bitcoin 'Flash Rally' Briefly Pushed BTC Derivatives Above $56K on Bitfinex (CoinDesk)
Coinbase Faced With Too Much Regulatory Uncertainty, Rating Cut to Neutral: Citi (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin spot trading volume plunged more than 65% in April as Binance added back fees (The Block)
Digital Currency Group revenue up from fourth quarter, lags year earlier as CFO steps down (The Block)
Samsung employees banned from using ChatGPT-like AI tools (CoinTelegraph)
The average person’s wealth will be 'completely destroyed by inflation,' says Arthur Hayes (CoinTelegraph)
Coinbase Executives Sued for Allegedly Selling Stock Ahead of Bad News (Blockworks)
Poloniex Settles With OFAC for $7.6M Over Sanctions Violations (Blockworks)
Sports Illustrated Embraces Ethereum for NFT Event Tickets (Decrypt)
Dubai Reprimands Three Arrows Capital Founders Over New Exchange OPNX (Decrypt)
Secretive trading firms that pile into crypto are ‘first sign’ of mainstream adoption (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Well just a day or so after it came out that JPMorgan would be buying the assets of failed First Republic Bank there’s now worries that Pacific West Bank may have problems. This all coinciding with a fed meeting that starts today and tomorrow at 2:30 pm eastern Jerome Powell will speak and decide the fate of the world. Many are calling for a pause or pivot as high interest rates seem to be the root cause of the banking issues. However, there are also many analysts that think the fed will continue to ignore the state of the banking system and hike further to maintain the fight against inflation, which is still at record levels.
Bitcoin’s price experienced several wild intraday swings last week moving over 10% in both directions in one single trading day. One thing to note is that Bitcoin’s price had a violent upswing when news of SVB’s failure which allegedly lead many to move their money out of stablecoins and into the trusted blockchain with no counterparty risk. Now, multiple banks have failed since then with the price consolidating below $30k. In fact there are signs of a head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily time frame and Bitcoin continues to test the 50 day moving average as support.
As usual going into FOMC day’s it has proven best to be cautious, not try and predict what the fed will do and instead follow the proceeding trend.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following the markets response to the FOMC statement tomorrow.
Possible Course of Action
Short if 50 day MA fails to act as support
Get long here (50 day MA currently holding as support, could use tight stop loss)
Do nothing and wait for FOMC statement Wed 2:30pm et
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above the 200 day MA
Price currently holding 50 day MA as support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
$30k (big round number) new resistance
Potential Head and Shoulders forming
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal continues to follow the most popular meme coin trading on Twitter.
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