Say It Ain't So
Bitcoin falls under $30,000
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Gensler thinks its 'too early' to say if Ripple ruling will lead to more crypto rules (The Block)
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest sells more Coinbase shares worth $26 million (The Block)
United Kingdom’s digital pound meets public backlash — Why?(CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin price is ‘stuck’ at $30K — Here are 3 reasons why (CoinTelegraph)
Bitcoin Cannot Remain Indifferent to Dollar Index for Long: Analyst (CoinDesk)
Reddit Community Tokens Rocket as Rule Change Speculation Boosts MOON, BRICK (CoinDesk)
Zk rollups vie for throughput crown (Blockworks)
Celsius crypto fire sale is starting: $63M out of $160M sent to exchange (Blockworks)
SEC Accepts Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF Proposal for Official Review (Decrypt)
Coinbase CEO to meet Democrats on digital asset regulation (Aljazeera)
Ontario ‘crypto king’ allegedly held ransom by investor who lost $740K (Protos)
The next job for EU regulators: making sure Binance and other crypto giants don’t game MiCA (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Bitcoin is currently setup to trade five consecutive down days after meeting resistance at $32,000. The ripple court case gave the market a bump last week. The case offered new regulatory clarity that clears up uncertainty around many crypto tokens. However, this rally was sharp and fast with the entire rally being given back the next day for ETH and BTC. Many altcoins were able to hold onto the gains from last week. These were mostly coins that sold off sharply when the SEC Coinbase suit was made fire made public.
Bitcoin is back at a familiar support level (MicroStrategy’s average entry price) that has marked the bottom of the trading range for the last twenty seven days. Often in markets if supports are tested too many times they will finally give as buyers are exhausted. This means it’s up to the bulls to step back in and prove if this rally has any legs left.
If a daily candle closes under $29800 it’s likely there will be a near term move to retest the 50 day moving average(currently $28700), and of course the price has not revisited the 200 day MA (currently $25800) since March 10th. Twice this year shorting a loss of the 50 day MA (daily candle closes under) and closing the short near the 200 day MA has worked successfully. Eventually the pattern will break and the trade will not work.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
If long stay long while price is above 50 day MA
Short if price closes below ($30k, add under $29.8k, add under 50 day MA)
Do nothing waiting for price to rise above $32000 or retest 200 day MA to get long
The Bulls’ Defense:
Price above 50 day MA, 200 day MA
ETF filings
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Resistance near 2023 local top ($32000)
Possible future fed hikes
Sell off from XRP news (should have been a bull catalyst)
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal reviews where UNI could be heading next.
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