The Final Hike?
All eyes on the FOMC this week for what could be the final rate hike this cycle
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
GRVT raises funds at $39 million valuation to build hybrid crypto exchange (The Block)
Bitcoin bounce due to Mt. Gox delay rumors but still targeting $22,000, says QCP (The Block)
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands hit key zone as BTC price fights for $27K (CoinTelegraph)
FTX founder’s parents sued, accused of stealing millions from crypto exchange (CoinTelegraph)
What I Learned Managing a Crypto Fund for Five Years (CoinDesk)
Can Regulators Ever Keep Up With Crypto Markets? (CoinDesk)
Alameda amends complaint against Grayscale as co-plaintiff search continues (Blockworks)
Centrifuge to meet demand for Real World Assets with liquidity pools (Blockworks)
PayPal Shares First PYUSD Report as Stablecoin Market Fades to $131 Billion (Decrypt)
Meet the grifter cast of Killer Whales, ‘Web3’s answer to Shark Tank’ (Protos)
New project wants to help DAOs dodge bad debt by replacing humans with algorithms (DLNews)
Mark Cuban says he was tricked into a $870,000 hack via a dodgy Google link (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
After bouncing off the June low, BTC is now back flirting with the 200 day moving average and meeting the 50 day moving average as resistance. Yesterday and now this morning, the price has hit the 50 day MA and immediately fallen. However, the price did not continue its short term decline after meeting this resistance. Instead, the price is now pushing into this resistance level for a second day in a row. Any measured move above the 50 and 200 day MA will likely result in a new 2023 high price shortly after.
It’s FOMC week and the market has priced in nearly a 50/50 chance that the fed will hike another 25 bps. Other than intraday volatility this is likely to have little impact on the Bitcoin price as the market is still expecting 2024 to be higher for longer with no more hikes but instead simply a pause on changing rates.
Other than the technicals we pointed out above, not much has changed for BTC. The market is still waiting in anticipation of Bitcoin spot ETF approvals that could be delayed now until 2024. Historically, October and November have been high performing months for BTC, especially October. Note that in 2020 BTC hovered around and under its 200 day MA for nearly 6 months. This behavior would be well aligned with the Bitcoin Halvening that will take place next summer.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
Do nothing, remain flat and wait for price to rise above 200 day MA or below June low
If short stay short while price remains below 200 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halvening
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
price held June low as support
The Bears’ Prosecution:
price trading below 200 day MA
price currently meeting 50 day MA as resistance
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal checks in on ETH’s relative performance to BTC.
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