The Legend of Uptober
Will the multi-year pattern continue?
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Jail Is Not That Bad (X)
Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyers seek to block Ukrainian witness from testifying (The Block)
Celsius successor to be seeded with $450 million in crypto if restart plan approved (The Block)
Bitcoin traders demand ‘slow grind’ up after BTC price drops over 4% (CoinTelegraph)
Future of payments: Visa to invest $100M in generative AI (CoinTelegraph)
Grayscale Moves to Convert Its Ethereum Trust to a Spot ETH ETF (CoinDesk)
Sam Bankman-Fried Refiles for Temporary Release Ahead of Trial (CoinDesk)
LayerZero eyes Asia expansion with Conflux partnership (Blockworks)
Circle and Noble bring native USDC to Cosmos via CCTP (Blockworks)
Bankrupt Crypto Lender Celsius Eyes Creditor Payback by Year End (Decrypt)
Crypto legend John McAfee’s suicide confirmed by Spanish courts (Protos)
Bitcoin options market flashing volatility warning, says Bitfinex (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
Bitcoin is back in the zone of indecision, trading between the 200 day (in orange) and 50 day (in blue) moving averages. This is now the second time in a short period that Bitcoin has made an attempt to move back above the 200 day MA and was quickly rejected. However, what’s different now is the price is back above the 50 day MA. We take this to mean that the price is going no where fast. Likely, in the coming week this will be just chop unless there is an outside catalyst to push the price in one direction.
Historically, October has been a great month for Bitcoin. Many even nicknamed it “Uptober” by how consistently Bitcoin has had positive returns for this month over the past years. So, is this time different?
We like to keep it really simple here and ignore the noise. Basically, if the price can reclaim the 200 day moving average in the coming weeks then we’d expect Uptober to have a chance. Otherwise, the choppy price action is likely to continue.
Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.
Possible Course of Action
Do nothing, remain flat and wait for price to rise above 200 day MA or below June low
If short stay short while price remains below 200 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halvening (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
price held June low as support
price above 50 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
price trading below 200 day MA
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