A Green Flag
Bitcoin continues to consolidate for two weeks in a row
Cheat Sheet -
Current support and resistance ranges plus our bias on top cryptos, oil, and stocks.
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What We Are Watching
We further breakdown our case for these cryptos here : What We Are Watching
Crypto News
Euro stablecoin startup lands €3.3 million seed round (The Block)
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest sells $3.8 million GBTC, buys $5.6 million Block (The Block)
Hong Kong regulator issues tokenized investments requirements amid demand (CoinTelegraph)
Inordinately high — Bitcoin Ordinals send BTC transaction fees to new 5-month peak (CoinTelegraph)
Kraken Said to Seek Partner to Help Build It a Layer 2 Blockchain Network (CoinDesk)
CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Surge Indicates Interim BTC Price Top (CoinDesk)
Sam Bankman-Fried took the stand, but it’s really CEXs on trial (Blockworks)
ApeFest marred by reports of eye and skin injuries (Blockworks)
NFT Traders Respond to 'Simpsons' Roasting by Spending Millions on Knockoff Collectibles (Decrypt)
OPNX is having its CoinFLEX moment (Protos)
See how Lido’s deposits soared 188% this year and blew away the rest of DeFi (DLNews)
BTC Outlook
There tend to be three distinct phases in a market, mark up, mark down and consolidation. The colors on the cheat sheet are an attempt to represent these three phases: up(blue), sideways(orange), down(pink-red). Bitcoin is currently in a 15 day consolidation phase. The pattern this year has been short bursts of mark ups with majority of the move being in a few days followed by an extended period of consolidation with short periods of mark downs until key support levels are reached.
The difference between the recent price rise and the mark up periods earlier this year is that the recent breakout comes after a long period of consolidation under the 200 day moving average. This is more similar to the Nov-Dec 2022 consolidation period than the rapid bounces off the 200 day moving average that occurred in March and June. Based on this one would expect that Bitcoin will find support well above this consolidation and likely hold the 2023 summer high as support.
If you’ve missed the rally an obvious place to wait for an entry is the 200 day moving average (currently around $28500). When Bitcoin is rising it consistently revisits this level on the way up as it did several times this year. Note that the moving average will start rising with price because of the magnitude of this recent rally. Shorting is dangerous here with the amount of buy pressure because it’s unclear where the resistance is and the rally will finally stop. A fall below the 50 day moving average could be a signal to short or take profits if already long.
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Possible Course of Action
Stay Long here while price remains above 50 day MA
Short if price falls below 50 day MA
DCA into spot long over next 6 months in anticipation of Halving (2024 summer)
The Bulls’ Defense:
ETF decision could still happen in 2023
Golden Cross of 50day and 200 day MA
The Bears’ Prosecution:
Consolidation could retest $31k
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