Humble Beginnings
Bitcoin has a quiet start to the New Year
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
Trader Joe's DEX and NFT marketplace to expand to BNB Chain (The Block)
Solana NFT marketplace Magic Eden offers refunds following fake y00ts fix (The Block)
Why Did Sam Bankman-Fried Plead Not Guilty? (CoinDesk)
Silvergate Shares Plunge 41% as Firm Cuts 200 Jobs, Writes Off Diem Asset Acquisition(CoinDesk)
10 crypto tweets that aged like milk: 2022 edition (CoinTelegraph
Hong Kong lawmaker wants to turn CBDC into stablecoin featuring DeFi (CoinTelegraph)
Coinbase’s $100M Settlement, Largest Since BlockFi (Blockworks)
News Startup Semafor To Return Funds Linked to FTX Founder (Blockworks)
Animoca Slashes Target For Metaverse Fund to $1 Billion: ‘It Could Be Less’ (Decrypt)
U.S. Judge Issues Detention Order for Mango Markets Attacker (Decrypt)
BTC Outlook
This first week of the new year is drawing to a close and so far Bitcoin’s price action has been relatively quiet. It didn’t go down or up and well the only key thing going on now is it’s hugging the 50 day moving average. If you take a moment to glance at the chart you’ll see this blue line has been the enemy of the bulls since June 2022. So, quietly hugging the blue line could be a sign the bears are running out of steam and there are genuine buyers at this level willing to hold onto coins at this price.
Let’s talk scenarios:
The most boring being Bitcoin hugging the 50 day moving average for most of January and being declared a stablecoin. This could be deadly for traders with tight stop losses on either side.
The 50 day acts as support and Bitcoin moves up over Q1. The first two points of resistance are the June 18 low at $17600 and then the 20 week moving average at $18600. Remember too that when Bitcoin settles in at the 20 week moving average altcoins have historically performed well in this period.
The 50 day acts as resistance and during January Bitcoin begins to fall below $16500. The next target for support is the 2022 low around $15500 followed by potential support around $12k. Altcoins would suffer severally in this situation.
Join us in discord where we will continue to monitor if BTC can find support at the 50 day moving average.
Possible Course of Action
Get long if 50 day MA acts as support
Short if 50 day MA becomes resistance again as it did many times in 2022
Do nothing and wait for 20 week moving average to act as support
The Bulls’ Defense:
Currently trading above 50 day moving average
The Bears’ Prosecution:
US stock market uncertainty
Bad CPI data could drag price down again
A Closer Look
This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.
This morning Hal gives an update on the two trade ideas presented in Tuesday’s newsletter.
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