May The Fourth Be With You

Bitcoin gives back FOMC gains

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, GC, CL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins

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Crypto News

• Pepecoin Overtakes Dogecoin, Shiba Inu Trading Volumes as Early Buyers Take Profits (CoinDesk)

• ‘WallStreetBets’ Themed Tokens Plummets 90% as Insider Dumps Treasury Holdings (CoinDesk)

• Ethereum transaction fees at their highest since May 2022 amid memecoin mania (The Block)

• Curve to redeploy crvUSD stablecoin on Ethereum after 'mistake in deployment script' (The Block)

• SEC has 10 days to respond to Coinbase complaint: Legal exec (CoinTelegraph)

• How are Bitcoin options traders positioning for the US banking crisis? (CoinTelegraph)

• Nigeria SEC Okays Tokenized Assets, but Crypto Will Have to Wait (Blockworks)

• SEC Pulls ‘Digital Assets’ Definition From Final Ruling (Blockworks)

• Genesis 'One of the Main Feeder Funds' to Fraudulent FTX Activities, Say Debtors (Decrypt)

• Tesla AI Is 'Trying to Kill You Every Chance It Can,' Says Apple Co-Founder (Decrypt)

• A16z warns UK on lumping DeFi into broader crypto laws (DLNews)

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BTC Outlook

The fed hiked 25 bps and nothing really happened to Bitcoin. Minute by minute there was some volatility but backing up and looking at the recent daily swings, yesterday was a none event.

The important level we continue to watch is the 50 day moving average (in blue). This is a moving average that is well respected in bullish upside moves. Notice how the price met resistance at the 50 day moving average during the 2022 bear market. Since January 2023 Bitcoin has been bouncing off the 50 day moving average as support.

One point I wanted to address was the SVB failure bounce that Bitcoin had. My personal opinion is that the SVB failure had a more direct impact on the backings of stablecoins. This created a short term scenario where many were rushing for an exit and chose BTC and ETH for the door. The recent bank failures have had little impact on stablecoin backing and there has not been the short term rush for a door.

Balaji also bailed on his $1million Bitcoin bet to preserve his reputation.

The next obvious technical move is for Bitcoin to retest the 2023 high, or move down to the 200 day moving average. There are no obvious outside catalysts pushing the price in either direction so more consolidation could be possible.

Join us in discord where we will actively be following Bitcoin’s price action.

Possible Course of Action

• Short if 50 day MA fails to act as support

• Get long here (50 day MA currently holding as support, could use tight stop loss)

• Do nothing and wait for a breakout of the 2023 to get long

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Price above the 200 day MA

• Price currently holding 50 day MA as support

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• $30k (big round number) new resistance

• Potential Head and Shoulders forming

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

This morning Hal continues to follow the most popular meme coin trading on Twitter and checks in on ETH’s relative performance to BTC.