The Show Drags On
End of year comments or all's quiet on the crypto front
Cheat Sheet -
Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.
Crypto News
Happy Holidays from Foot Gun’s. It’s a slow news week and prices are barely moving too. If you wanna chat about price we are active in the discord. Otherwise we’ll be back next week with the rest of the market participants!
Hal’s Comments On A Bad Year
I want to focus on a few quotes from yesterday’s article from our friend behind the trading desk.
They have become crypto.
If crypto goes down, their ego goes down with it.
I think this relates to the keyman risk that Cletus pointed out in our last podcast. The theme of 2022 in crypto has been this entirely. Communities that become obsessed with a project’s leader, fall in love with the leader, and then crucify the leader after a third party reveals the “magic tricks” were in fact just old tricks of ancient fraudsters.
It is still possible to trade these tokens and there is the low probability that one day one of these charlatans may be a good actor and push the industry forward, but the point is to not fall in love. If you’ve rationaled an investment and come to the point that you’ll put money into it, well certainly don’t fall in love with the trade, the investment and definitely not the charlatans!
When money comes in easy, irresponsible or inexperienced players take more risk.
They underestimate counter party risk and overestimate #technology.
This is one of the reasons many harp on having a plan in trading and investing. Visualize your exit and entry if not explicitly creating them with stop losses or take profit orders. We’ve learned in 2022 what the first signs of a bad actor running a project are, and don’t forget this “overestimate #technology” point, this can be a great way to take profits or get out of a trade entirely. For example, with LUNA, if the Terra blockchain really had been new and useful technology it would go through cycles of adoption. The price rise and hype far outpaced the natural speed of growth even if exponential. A key factor with Terra LUNA that surprised even the most experienced traders and investors in crypto was the speed of the unwind. The same is true for FTX.
That’s a real danger in this space and also why rational and planned trading may be a fools game here. No one was planning for the contingency of “What happens if this entire trade unwinds in 72 hours?” , “What happens if I sell at a profit but can’t move my funds off the exchange?”.
The game is to survive, not to shine.
This perfectly encapsulates 2022, and the entire crypto industry. This is part of the reason I remain bullish specifically on Bitcoin over every other crypto. It is the only one that is just trying to survive and not shine. No leader. No new features promised on a road map.
Without the exchanges crypto loses its sole use case of gambling.
I would rephrase this to say “Without the exchanges almost every crypto that currently exists loses its sole use case of gambling”. There are a very few number of altcoins that are pushing into new grounds that may one day not just be gambling. Though, at the current moment even if a crypto is exploring some new niche, majority of market participants are using these tokens as cheap lottery tickets.
The thesis of Bitcoin becoming a alternative money certainly would require foreign exchange to occur somewhere if it’s going to integrate with the current fiat system. After 13 years of existence I’d put the odds of continued Bitcoin adoption near 10%. But I agree. If wider adoption never comes then crypto will remain a niche for gamblers and Bitcoin will surely lose its top spot as the #1 crypto by marketcap as it’s over taken by the most popular lottery ticket the market has most recently fallen in love wit.
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