What's going down in Jackson Hole?

Crypto markets eagerly anticipate the fed statements from Jackson Hole

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Cheat Sheet -

Support and resistance levels and our daily, weekly and monthly bias on BTC, ETH, OIL, ES, and NQ as well as our favorite altcoins.

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Crypto News

• Bitcoin miner Argo slashes hash rate growth estimate by 42% (The Block)

• Thailand’s SCB abandons $500 million deal to buy crypto exchange Bitkub (The Block)

• Bitcoin Depot set to go public at an $885 million valuation: WSJ(The Block)

• Reddit Starts Airdrop of Polygon-Based “Collectible Avatars” (CoinDesk)

• Afghan Authorities Shut Down 16 Crypto Exchanges in One Week: Report (CoinDesk)

• ETH whales move holdings onto exchanges before Merge (CoinTelegraph)

• Amendments to US commercial code differentiate crypto and ‘electronic money’ (CoinTelegraph)

• Crypto YouTuber ‘BitBoy’ Drops Defamation Suit After Public Outcry (Blockworks)

• Alameda Research Co-CEO Steps Down (Blockworks)

• Cybercriminals Have Stolen Over $100 Million in NFTs: Report (Decrypt)

• Coinbase Announces cbETH Wrapped Ethereum Staking Token (Decrypt)

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BTC Outlook

Fibonacci Retracement from June Sell off (Pink Box); Fibonacci Retracement from July Rally (Blue Box)

What a week last week. The BTC Outlook last Thursday suggest the rally may have run out of steam when BTC was unable to hold above $25000. The price quickly came down and found support exactly where we suggested between $20.5k and $21.5k. Now, we are back to patiently waiting for the price to choose a direction. The movement out of this buy zone has not been a confidently one and a small bear flag is forming over the past week. If a daily candle can close above $21.5k this week then expect a retest of $25k. However, due to the weakness of the rally off of $20.5k it is likely there will be a retest of this buy zone (in blue).

Also, note that the bear flag that has started forming since mid-June is still intact and in fact this recent sell off has stopped nearly at the bottom support of the bear flag. While it is a good risk reward to buy BTC here looking for an eventual return to its ATH, it is still possible to see a new low before the market truly turns back around. You should also expect increased volatility today as the crypto markets eagerly anticipate what statements from the fed may come out of the Jackson Hole meeting.

Possible Course of Action

• Long if daily candle closes above $21.5k

• Do nothing and wait for a retest of the blue zone ($20.5k -$21.5k)

• Short if daily candle closes below $20.5k

The Bulls’ Defense:

• Recent sell off found support in Fibonacci golden pocket

• Higher low

The Bears’ Prosecution:

• Potential Bear Flag

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Earn Interest on your Bitcoin

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A Closer Look

This section will be focused on taking a closer look on what Hal thinks is important to watch in the coming week.

Today we’ll follow up on last Thursday’s ETH commentary. Because the merge is on the top of everyone’s minds we will be following the price action closely as the September 15th merge date draws near.